My Finals Prediction

For the record I must say that I was correct with the outcome of the Finals in the past three years. I predicted of course that the Heat would win (in six games too). I predicted that San Antonio would rip Cleveland a new one. I also predicted that Boston would win last year. 

This is probably the toughest matchup for me to decide though. Both teams have been superb, and even though both of them had some scary moments during the Playoffs, they managed to stay together, step up their game, get to the Finals. 

For Orlando, most people said that defeating Cleveland was something impossible a few weeks ago. Cleveland had won 66 games during the regular season and swept the Playoffs on their way to the Eastern Conference Finals. Yet, Orlando was way superior. If it wasn't for LeBron's heroic 3-pointer, they could have swept the Cavs in four games as well. 

Kobe and the Lakers had their share of problems. First with the Rockets, then Denver. The problem with the Lakers was that the role players, who were so important during the regular season, did not contribute enough. Luckily for them that changed in the past few games against the Nuggets, as Lamar Odom and others stepped up and helped the Lakers make it back to the Finals. 

So what now? Both teams have a dominating Superstar. We all probably agree that Kobe is a better, more complete player than Dwight Howard. But Howard has been a dominating force that automatically makes his players better. If Kobe has a bad game, he shoots too many jumpers, it is uncertain that other players besides Pau Gasol can pick up the slack scoring points. If Dwight has a bad game scoring, he can still create opportunities for Turkoglu, Lewis, Lee, Alston, etc. 

I think it will be a very physical and tough series. The games should go down to the wire. If the Lakers have the last shot, like Cleveland did, expect Kobe to knock them down. If Orlando plays smart basketball and moves the ball around, they will not wait until that last play to decide the outcome of the game.

The Lakers have the pressure here. Like Howard says, he is just happy to be here and will enjoy his first NBA finals. Of course that he and especially Van Gundy want to win, but nobody expected them to be there anyways. This was supposed to be the Year of LeBron, and it may now become the Year of Kobe. As much as he and everyone says that is not a big deal, winning a Championship without Shaq will be the ultimate highlight for Kobe's career and hard work over the past few seasons. This is his team, and with all the bumps in the road, he is the one that helped build it and develop his teammates into Championship contenders. 

Even though I am now living in Los Angeles, I would be very happy if Orlando wins this. Going back to my beginnings as a NBA fan, Orlando's Penny Hardaway jersey was the first one I ever owned (and still do). Shaq is and will probably be my favorite player of all time (I'm not saying that he is the best, but probably the most fun to watch and one I have followed his entire career in the league). Van Gundy is a great coach, and he did an amazing job with both Miami and Orlando. His first title would also be an amazing accomplishment.

Prediction: Magic in six. If Orlando can win one of the first two games in Los Angeles, they will be very tough to beat back home and I don't think Kobe will get the help he needs to win four games against a team that has so many weapons like the Magic.